20 replies to this topic

[drdiver]

It's not all the French Quarter and Mardi Gras

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman

Edited by drdiver, 07 September 2005 - 06:57 AM.

[Cold_H2O]

Thank you for sharing.

Most people don't realize how important New Orleans is. They see it simply as a large party town and nothing more. When it is in fact a major shipping port.

I recently saw a poll that ask if we should try and rebuild her or let her return to nature. The majority of the pollers think we should just walk away and let nature reclaim the area. I was shocked by the numbers. 2 out of 3 pollers thought it was best to walk away.
I can not begin to imagine the impact that would have on commerce here in the US. I think we must rebuild and return the people to their homes, lives and jobs.

Just my 2 psi on the topic.

[Brinybay]

I recently saw a poll that ask if we should try and rebuild her or let her return to nature. The majority of the pollers think we should just walk away and let nature reclaim the area. I was shocked by the numbers. 2 out of 3 pollers thought it was best to walk away.

That's also what I heard one idiot TV reporter (Sheppard Smith) say also - "I don't see how they're ever going to rebuild N.O.!" What a moron. We built the Panama Canal with technology that existed over 100 years ago, we can rebuild N.O. and the rest of the Gulf Coast damage. Admittedly the timing is awful, just when gas prices where already reaching record heights and our resources strained by war. The scary part is gas prices don't just impact us at the pump. Everything we have reaches us by some form of transportation that uses the same fuel. Who do you think is going to pay the added cost of that fuel? I have confidence we'll recover, but I'm bracing for the immediate impact over the next few months.

[Marvel]

Thank you for sharing this Dennis. Although my concerns so far have all been centered around the people trapped there with less than adequate assistance, you have managed to open my eyes to a whole host of long range problems. I cannot imagine how they are going to be solved but, based on this assessment, they must be.

[peterbj7]

On the other hand sea levels are rising. In England there is now an official policy not to protect certain areas of the coast that are subject to major erosion. If New Orleans is rebuilt, as it surely will be, it ought to be built on land that stands more of a chance of staying above sea levels as they rise.

[DandyDon]

It is in this sense, then, that it seems almost as if a nuclear weapon
went off in New Orleans. The people mostly have fled rather than died,
but they are gone. Not all of the facilities are destroyed, but most
are. It appears to us that New Orleans and its environs have passed the
point of recoverability. The area can recover, to be sure, but only
with the commitment of massive resources from outside -- and those
resources would always be at risk to another Katrina.

It always seemed dumb to me to over build a city in a below ocean level tub in the hurricane belt, but I guess they hoped it would never happen.

I understand the big need for a port there - indeed, the need for the Army Corp of Engineers to force the Mississippi to flow there against current nature, but is there a need for the degree of development once seen there?

I'm in Houston this weekend, and while there is much support for the evacuees here, problems are happening here too. Inmates escaped from jails in NO rode the buses over and the crime rate is up in a city already know for bad crime. Others who were caught in NO when the storm hit were those with little resources, living on the edge of productive society there, and have brought unfortunate attitudes with them.

A complex dilemma, it seems...

[drbill]

This is a catastrophe of epic proportions. I must admit, it is difficult for me here on remote Catalina to understand the full impact. I've only been to New Orleans once and it wasn't a great experience. However, watching the news coverage of the people essentially left to fend for themselves is an inexcusable blotch on this country's ability to protect its citizens. I won't go into my political beliefs here, but I feel this whole episode is inexcusable... simply inexcusable.

As for rebuilding N.O., I'm sure it will happen. We continue to develop in areas that are known for potential natural disasters (earthquakes here in L.A. of course) and we continue to degrade the very natural systems (wetlands) that might have helped lessen this impact. I hope we learn this time.

[DandyDon]

However, watching the news coverage of the people essentially left to fend for themselves is an inexcusable blotch on this country's ability to protect its citizens. I won't go into my political beliefs here, but I feel this whole episode is inexcusable... simply inexcusable.

Weren't they ordered to evacuate before the storm hit...?

From the latest newspapers I've seen, nearly half a million have now been evacuated, with nearly a quarter million of them moved here to Texas shelters - all the way up here in the Panhandle. I understand that Lubbock police were at the airport this weekend checking backgrounds as possible in hopes of intercepting escapes convicts that may have come in on the planes.

Texas is a big state, but our emergency shelters are essentially overflowing. We are certainly happy to help our neighbor's people, but we are also having to look at other realities:
(1) Many of these folks have no intention of returning. They want to settle here - in our cities. There could be a lot of new citizens here soon.
(2) With our emergency shelters overflowing, some are refusing to be moved to other states or the three cruise ships leased to house evacuees.
(3) And we are going to be in big, big trouble if our own coast were to be hit by a bad storm. There is a lot of hurricane season left, and it could happen....?!

And now we're looking at Cholera risks! If I remember correctly, this disease harbors in warm ocean waters - like that can invaded New Orleans, and physicians are on the watch for signs among the evacuees.

Edited by DandyDon, 06 September 2005 - 06:58 PM.

[Marvel]

Weren't they ordered to evacuate before the storm hit...?

Just ordering it does not always mean it is possible to comply with. Not everyone had the resources to do so nor was much in the way of assitance provided for them.

[sunshinediver]

Thank you for sharing.

Most people don't realize how important New Orleans is. They see it simply as a large party town and nothing more. When it is in fact a major shipping port.

I recently saw a poll that ask if we should try and rebuild her or let her return to nature. The majority of the pollers think we should just walk away and let nature reclaim the area. I was shocked by the numbers. 2 out of 3 pollers thought it was best to walk away.
I can not begin to imagine the impact that would have on commerce here in the US. I think we must rebuild and return the people to their homes, lives and jobs.

Just my 2 psi on the topic.

Don't believe the media and don't believe these polls. They do not use adequate sampling techniques to be considered reilable or valid.

I love New Orleans. It has always been one of my favorite cities, and I enjoy going to Jazz Fest every year. What it lacks in wealth, it makes up for in the richness of culture. It is an amazing city rich with traditions, excellent cuisine, and some of the best music you've ever heard. The spirit of the people there is inspirational, and my hope is that it will be rebuilt in a way that respects the history and traditions of the city.

[dustbowl diver]

Weren't they ordered to evacuate before the storm hit...?

Just ordering it does not always mean it is possible to comply with. Not everyone had the resources to do so nor was much in the way of assitance provided for them.

This point is true. However, if the mayor has now proclaimed mandatory evacuations, granting law enforcement the right to remove people by force if necessary, what does this mean??

[sunshinediver]

I've only been to New Orleans once and it wasn't a great experience.

If you've only been to the French Quarter or the tourist spots, don't judge New Orleans for that alone. You are only seeing the tourists and not the locals. It really is a wonderful city.

[dustbowl diver]

Something else to consider in this mess. While we have all felt the pain at the pump, nobody in the media has begin to focus on the fact that New Orleans is the 5th largest port in this country and consider the billions of dollars of commerce that flow up and down the 'big' river. Be advised that this bound to hit us in the wallet for basic consumer goods and energy costs as well.

[dustbowl diver]

For those interested, FEMA has an inventory of about 1,200 manufactured homes and about 600 RV's in Ft. Worth, Atlanta, and in Maryland. While I expect these to be moving soon, the overwheming problem is where to send them as over a million folks are still without electricity, water treatment, running water, etc.

Just another point while I am in the spirit. The RV industry is very quickly ramping up to build close to 50,000 RV's with a likely destination of Alabama and Mississippi, to assist these areas with shelter as the citizens clean up. FEMA has acquired the inventory of one large Manufactured Home supplier and is in process of finalizing bids for new units. No one knows the destination of these homes or exisiting home inventories from last years 4 hurricane cycle in Florida. It is believed that many of these homes will remain in Texas or be sent here to help with NO residents that plan to stay here or in the likely event that they will be here awhile.

[DandyDon]

I read that Houston's ship channel will be dredged deeper to accommodate ships better so they can dock there instead while NO docks are rebuilt. Shipping inland from there will be more expensive than up the Mississippi, to be sure.

Kinda reminds me of when Houston got it's big start a hundred years ago. Galveston had been the major port, but after it was leveled by the 1900 Hurricane with thousands of lives lost - Houston was selected as a safer replacement. Before that, it was just a little town in the swamp on the way to Galveston.