11 replies to this topic

[WreckWench]

One of our members works in emergency preparedness and send me the following message:

Kamala

Just a heads up I just got off a conference call with my Disaster Team and National Hurricane Center. This hurricane season is looking to be highly active this year, due to water temps being higher then normal at the surface and middle depths as well as lots of atmosphere instability in the gulf, Atlantic and in Africa.

So for trips this summer you might want to make trip insurance mandatory to protect the members since many will opt out.

Dan aka ScubaTooth


So please be extra cautious when making your travel plans this summer. kamala

[georoc01]

Having followed these predictions over the last 6 years on Weather Underground, the one thing I've figured out is that we aren't very good at predicting hurricanes. So it seems like we predict on the heavy side, as no one wants to be the one that predicts a lighter than normal season and have it turn into the season of nightmares.

And even when we can predict them, how many are going to make landfall, and how many hit populated areas is even harder, if not impossible.

Last year was a busier than normal year, but virtually none of the storms hit the Caribbean, Gulf or Florida. All headed straight north up the Atlantic, hence Sandy. And the year of Katrina was considered a light year for hurricanes too.

I've been caught twice on SD trips. The last was a storm that formed down around Roatan and came straight north up the coastline towards Cozumel. It was a CAT3 at the time I had to evacuate the island. It didn't exist when I hopped on a plane in Denver and it didn't exist on a Sunday, but by the time I landed in Cozumel, there it was forming that night.

The moral of the story is, any travel in hurricane prone areas from June-November is vulnerable to a hurricane so be prepared with travel insurance and an idea of what you would do if a storm hits before or during your trip.

[bpro]

Thanks for the timely updates.

I've been fortunate in that I've never had to sweat a hurricane while on a dive trip. Or maybe I just don't dive enough!

So, I'm covered for the upcoming Barbados trip. Out of curiosity though, will the operator (SD.com?) cancel the trip in the event of a hurricane threat? Will typical coverage cover the insured if SD doesn't cancel but I make the call myself?

Not going to overthink this; just curious how it works and what others' experiences have been with trip insurance. For reference, my plan for July is a CSA Custom plan.

[Buzo Guero]

Thanks for the info, Dan!

The one thing I've always done my entire life with my disposable income is travel, extensively. It's what I'd rather do than acquire stuff...

Prior to joining SingleDivers.com, I had never, ever bought trip insurance, including for trips up to 30 days abroad. What I've basically done, all these years, is dodge bullets & be incredibly lucky.

On my first two dive trips with WreckWench, I've decided to buy it because it HAS been the Caribbean. So far, no need to use it. Which is fine. I did finally just break down & buy an annual policy moving forward, knowing that my day is coming down the road, unfortunately. It's an eventuality. WHEN it does happen, I'll be ahead of the game, in terms of money "invested" vs. payout. Plus, these policies cover ALL OF MY ANNUAL TRAVEL. A cheap investment for peace of mind for that day when my vacation does, finally, unravel in front of me. Seeing as the value of my trips is only going up, it's a no-brainer, anymore.

My 2psi.

[WreckWench]

All polices are different so you'll need to read the fine print as they say. The trick is documentation. Many low cost carriers offer low premiums for the insurance but then ding you if you don't document things just right. Others such as DiveAssure will charge a bit more but are very accommodating when it comes to documentation.

For example... a few years ago we made a trip to Utila and 23 of 26 people did not make it when they were supposed to make it. So 23 people were stranded in San Pedro Sula. They finally made it a day late but some people were without luggage for 2 or more days. The flights were canceled by the airlines. Now who thinks to have the airlines give you written proof they canceled your flights? I certainly did not and neither did anyone who had a canceled flight. Those with the low cost carriers were told they had no proof that their flight was canceled. Those with DiveAssure also had no proof but they copied posts from the SingleDivers.com forums where everyone had posted that their flights were canceled and gave them my contact info. They never even contacted me and the claims were paid. OTOH...I sent multiple emails to several of the low cost carriers vouching the flight was canceled and 'eventually' they paid but I had just about given up chalking it up to a hard learning lesson.

Sometimes the old saying...you get what you pay for...is really true.

So the take away... no matter what carrier you use you need PROOF and therefore you can not cancel for yourself otherwise you will not have the proof.

[georoc01]

Well, its started Andrea has formed and is hitting the Florida panhandle

http://weather.yahoo...-091518486.html

[Scubatooth]

WW

Here's the thread I started a couple of days ago with some additional information.

The irony is that many of us on local, state and federal disaster teams that we look forward to deployments as we know our skills and expertise are needed when they happen. However we don't wish a disaster on anyone because of the physical, mental and financial effects. Sort of a variation of Si vis pacem, para bellum (If you want peace, prepare for war).

Things are looking pretty good with TD Andrea (Previously Invest 91L) just being a rain event but still a couple pieces hanging out in the gulf and Atlantic that are being watched.

[bpro]

I'm no expert by any means, just enjoy watching and learning about weather. Those who are are more adept, feel free to add your spin and commentary to the post.

As of this writing, there are two areas currently in the Gulf that show low potential of forming tropical storms.



Area #2 is east of Barbados, heading westward.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

At approximately 1900 miles at 15 mph, it's about 5 days from Barbados at current heading. I'll post more if the percentages increase. So far, nothing of big concern.

[Scubatooth]

BPro - has not been much chatter or updates to the Federal Disaster teams in over a week.

My team isn't on-call this month but I put my name in for Team augmentation and quick response availability just in case.

[Scubatooth]

Well what a difference 24 hours can make. System #2 shown in BPro post has gone to a 60% probability of strengthening in the next 48hrs and has been designated Invest 95L.



The models say any landfall is 5 days or more away. Hurricane Hunters will likely be sent out soon to get a better read on what this system is doing.

Edited by Scubatooth, 07 July 2013 - 01:28 PM.

[Scubatooth]

In keeping information consolidated and in one spot will repost this for all to see

2013 Hurricane Season Travel Advisement ***** Please read if traveling 01June2013 - 01Nov2013 ****** Posted 04 June 2013 - 02:07 PM

Last week (End of May)* I was on a conference call with participants from around the country including federal disaster response teams, various three letter agencies and was hosted by the National Hurricane Center.

The conference call was a eye opener to say the least. They are fully expecting a busy and active season with various models showing the probability of Florida (both Atlantic & Gulf sides)& US VI getting hit as extremely high (Cat 3 or higher). Elevated risk (Cat 1-2) for the Gulf Coast from roughly Houston TX to Mississippi, and then the upper seaboard from Ocean City MD to Boston. The reason they are saying this is that the water temperature in the gulf and Atlantic is much warmer then usual and not just at the surface but at the middle depths as well. Warmer water just adds to a storms strength exponentially.

Even before the official start to hurricane season the pacific basin had already had two named systems(have been 2 systems since with the fifth Tropical Storm ERICK currently in the eastern pacific)*. In the Atlantic and gulf basin were a mix of unstable atmospheric conditions and several Lows stacked in Africa that could be released into the Atlantic. Barbara went into the west coast of Mexico as a very weak cat 1 storm and fizzled out. However the remains of Barbara are now in the gulf (Listed as Invest 91L - also may be listed as I91L, or India 91 Lima)and could restrengthen into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm and would be named Andrea(Became TS Andrea)*. The models indicate Invest 91L will probably just be a rain event that makes land fall in the panhandle of Florida. However that could change at anytime.

My disaster team command staff after the conference told everyone to go ahead and double check all our gear and to have it packed ready to go on short notice as we are on call for June and September. As well as to have gear packed for being deployed for 3 weeks (instead of the normal 2 weeks). I would never wish a disaster on anyone but at the same time my teammates and I are ready to go if the call for help goes out. The team is off on-call status but majority of the team is on a Team Augmentation and Rapid Deployment Lists if they need people quickly (Like Moore OK)*

So what it boils down to ... I implore you if you are planning a trip this summer to buy trip insurance just in case. If something happened would you have the cash to buy a last minute full fare ticket to get out of the path of the storm if the airline couldn't change your flight so that you could get out of the the storms path? If you don't have trip insurance you are gambling big time on what may be a once in a lifetime trip and loosing all that money. Its better to have trip insurance and not need it then caught with your wetsuit around your ankles and loosing thousands of dollars.

* = Red Bold text is updates from original post


The last part still holds true especially with the development of Invest 95L in the past 24hrs with National Hurricane Center saying there is a 70% chance of becoming at min at Tropical Storm. The next named storm for this season is Chantal.


Storm Names for the 2013 Hurricane Season.
Dorian (unused)
Erin (unused)
Fernand (unused)
Gabrielle (unused)
Humberto (unused)
Ingrid (unused)
Jerry (unused)
Karen (unused)
Lorenzo (unused)
Melissa (unused)
Nestor (unused)
Olga (unused)
Pablo (unused)
Rebekah (unused)
Sebastien (unused)
Tanya (unused)
Van (unused)
Wendy (unused)


YMMV and just my .02

Edited by Scubatooth, 07 July 2013 - 08:17 PM.

[Scubatooth]

NHC 2300 EDT 0300 UTC update

Invest 95L is now Tropical Storm Chantal
LOCATION...9.8N 47.2W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT VINCENT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313W5_NL+gif/025905W5_NL_sm.gif


NHC 2300EDT Public Advisory

This information is based off radar and estimated readings based off models. More Definitive information will be available once the Hurricane Hunters make there flight tomorrow. Next update from NHC is 0500EDT 0800UTC 08-Jul-2013