35 replies to this topic

[Walter]

Well, at this time, Hurricane Ivan has 160 mph winds and 920 mb of pressure (Andrew, in 1992 had 922 mb; Camille, in 1969 had 909 mb and the unnamed Keys storm of 1935 had 892 mb). At this point it's about the same (slightly stronger) strength as Andrew. Hopefully, it will lose strength soon. It is currently predicted to pass over Jamacia, then Little Cayman & Cayman Brac before crossing Cuba, Key West and hitting the US mainland at Fort Myers.

Keep in mind, this is a projection only, it could potentially strike any place in Florida or possibly miss (I hope) Florida all together.

Keep abreast of development by visiting the National Hurricane Center's website.

[StuShark]

The Lee County EOC (Emergency Operations Ctr) is now at Activation Level 2 (Partial Activation) [there's only 3 levels - level 1 means Fully Activated] and they will be putting out advisories at 8am, 11am and 5pm each day [www.leeeoc.com] - however they get the 'hurricane track' information from NOAA (see Walter's post)

[Sylvia]

Well,

I guess it is time to have a hurricane party.

Edited by Sylvia, 09 September 2004 - 02:15 PM.

[nextariel]

Since they have started to evacuate the Keys, my weeks vacation in Key West seems to be out of the question. Right now it is pointing to the west coast of FL, but that was Charley's projected path, and I sure know what happened with that one. We have so much flooding now and those with leaky roofs dread the afternoon rains, but to have the rains from another hurricane will really hurt many in our state.

Jamaica is about to be clobbered. Hopefully he will slow and fizzle and not be Ivan the Terrible.

[Sylvia]

but that was Charley's projected path, and I sure know what happened with that one.
We have so much flooding now and those with leaky roofs dread the afternoon rains, but to have the rains from another hurricane will really hurt many in our state.

Seriously, it seems just yesterday our electric was restored and literally yesterday at 3pm when finally received calls from family that they were fine.

[WreckWench]

Well our Bonaire members (many of whom joined when we were there in June) have been spared. This was the last report I got until earlier today until the much awaited report this evening saying that Bonaire had been spared! The only damage reported thus far is to Divi Flamingo Hotel, picture courtesy of our member Rogier Willems. (Now to keep our fingers crossed that Florida is spared as well!)

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

Attached Images

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[No Pressure]

I just got a call from a CRNA (nurse anesthetist) friend of mine. She, her boyfriend, 2 surgeons and wives, daughter, son, etc (about 8-10 people) had gone to Grenada last week for a dive week vacation. They had invited me to go with them. It was too long a trip, so I had declined. They got in 2 days of diving, then got hit by Ivan. She says she and her mother were standing in the Hotel lobby bathroom when the hotel roof was ripped completely off. Most scared they have been in their lives.
The prison was destroyed, and prisoners all escaped. No food or water, looting and killings until the Tobago/ trinidad military showed up. She said that M16 looked really good. American AIrlines was not landing. The US embassy guy was evidently unable to do anything for them. Her boyfriend (a pilot), and one of the sons finally organized 2 charter planes to come get them. One plane came and took half the group. The other filed a flight plan, but then decided not to go after all, but didn't report in. So the coast guard was out looking for a plane downed in the ocean with my friends in it.
She is now in Puerto Rico, returning to Dallas today. No one in their group was injured. Has lots of before and after photos. She says the entire island is destroyed. She says the relative good news is.....there are now a lot more wrecks to dive in Grenada.
Timing is everything.
Mark

[triggerfish]

oh my god. i'm glad she got out alive.
and i'm glad you had other things to do, mark.

remind me to check with you first if i ever attend a meeting with you!

[sapphire]

Mark, I am happy your timing is good!

But I am very worried about my friends in Little Cayman now...

jennifer

[Dejah]

Wow... that sounded like a very close call on your friends Mark.. glad they made it out ok..

However has anyone heard any recent news about Ivan? I heard that it's taking a turn towards the gulf a bit more... does anyone think our friends on the Roatan trip will experience any bad weather from Ivan?

Dejah

[DandyDon]

Wow... that sounded like a very close call on your friends Mark.. glad they made it out ok..

However has anyone heard any recent news about Ivan?  I heard that it's taking a turn towards the gulf a bit more... does anyone think our friends on the Roatan trip will experience any bad weather from Ivan?

Dejah

No, he's not going anywhere close to Roatan. But get his excerpt I got tonight (emphasis mine)...

THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB.  IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT 892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE.

He may not hit Florida until he gets to the Panhandle, but it doesn't look good for anyone on the Gulf Coast around to Mississippi.

If you have not left yet, go it at sunup, and watch out for shell-shocked crazies!

Edited by DandyDon, 11 September 2004 - 11:22 PM.

[nextariel]

Following is a letter addressed to our next unwelcome visitor. Although it is looking like most of the state may get lucky, but Charley seemed to take a similar path.


Dear Ivan:

Hey, how's it going out there near Barbados?

Listen, lots of us here in Florida have been talking
about your scheduled visit.

Now, please don't take this the wrong way. We like
spectacular forces of nature as well as the next guy. We realize that
Florida and hurricanes go together like country music and drunken driving.
We don't want to mess with tradition.

And we know you hurricanes recharge the aquifers,
provide an exhilarating break in the stifling heat of late
summer, and give neighbors a chance to bond. The economic boost you
give to Home Depot alone is enough to make up for whatever
inconvenience is to be expected.

So normally you would be as welcome as a gang of
Harley riders during Bike Week.

But may I say that this year the timing of your
tentatively scheduled arrival seems less than ideal.

You know that visitors start to wear out their
welcome after a few days. And too many visitors in a row can also wear down a
host and hostess. That, I'm sorry to say, is pretty much the position
we Floridians find ourselves in just now.

Your cousin Charley blew through a few weeks ago
and, to be blunt, he was less than mannerly. He zoomed in like a
hyperactive toddler, leaving the proverbial path of destruction, except
that it
was no proverb. And then he was gone without so much as a see-ya-later.

Charley was a leave-wet-towels-on-the-floor, never-pick-up-a-tab kind of
guest. He inspired some grumbling, and picking up after him has been a
real chore. You should have seen Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Arcadia
and Wauchula.

At least Charley didn't stay long. But just when we were starting to get
things almost back to normal, Frances sauntered in.

I don't mean to be crass, but she was HUGE. When she hung around the
state, she hung around the state, you know what I mean?

And you know how some guests just don't leave? That's Frances. Even when
we were looking at our watches and yawning and singing "The Party's
Over" she just stayed and stayed.

Some of us who hadn't really rolled out the red carpet for Charley
decided to prepare a lot more for Frances, and maybe we just tired
ourselves out. And then she stalled and arrived late, which is always
irritating.

She wasn't as wild as Charley, I'll admit. Those rumors about Frances
possibly becoming a Category 5 turned out to be overblown hype. But she
just sort of oozed through. I went to bed Sunday night and woke up
thinking she'd be long gone at last, but she was still here Monday
morning!

So a lot of us here are thinking that enough is enough for one year.
Actually, the experience of almost back-to-back hurricanes has some
people talking about canceling hurricane season entirely.

Don't worry. Floridians won't go that far. But we may consider moving
hurricane season to a nicer time of year. I know hurricanes like it hot,
but doing without air conditioning would be a lot nicer in November, or
maybe March, so as not to interfere with football season.

I mean, did you see where Frances actually caused the postponement of a
Gator football game? People will put up with a lot, but let's be
reasonable here.

Some are saying we should limit the number of hurricanes allowed into
Florida in one year. There might be some debate about whether the limit
should be one or two, but there is wide agreement that three is too
many.

So, Ivan, here's the point: Florida's famous hospitality is pretty much
tapped out just now. Our enthusiasm for big winds and rains, and for TV
reporters gushing forth with excited descriptions of it all, has bogged
down like a riding lawnmower in the swamp that used to be my back yard.

As I said, it is nothing personal, Ivan, but what would you say to
making alternate travel plans?

I understand that Mexico is lovely this time of year.

Edited by nextariel, 12 September 2004 - 03:57 AM.

[No Pressure]

My friend is now back home. SHe is most peeved at American Airlines, who evidently disavowed any responsibility for getting the Americans back (It was, in fact an AA vacation package). British AIrways landed for their people, but she says she was told that AA "leased" all their small jets to the charter companies (read $$$$$), and told the Americans on Grenada that there would be no AA flights until Sept 18th.
Herb Kelleher (Southwest Airlines) was "giving" a plane today to go get them if they had not gotten off the island yesterday. Remember this when you book air travel.
She says stay tuned for photos. She couldn't figure out why she had taken some of the "after" photos until she looked at the "before" ones. There used to be a building in that spot.

[Sophia]

Dear NoPressure,
I was shocked by by your friends' plight. I wrote AA this email. The 'friends' part was a stretch, but friends, of friends, of friends count as friends, right? Even if I don't know their name.
Sophia/Susan


Dear American Airlines,
I just returned from a two week trip to Belize/Cancun. I had been confident that had the hurricane got close, I would have been able to leave early. I just found out that some friends that were in Grenada were abandoned by you. They were even on an AA vacation package! British Airways landed to pick up their people, but American Airlines would not. Southwest was willing to pick up your people, but they had already chartered their own plane. I will remember this next time I plan a vacation, and I will tell the story to other divers.
Susan

[No Pressure]

Thanks Sophia. I spoke with my friend today. After some sleep, she is going to get together with the others in the trip party and write up their experience. They think having a lawyer friend send it to AA may help bring things to light, and hopefully prevent this from happening to others.